Bonus Post: Calculating Price Targets
As I mentioned earlier today, in appreciation of the generous readership, I thought I would share some of my ideas and methods for calculati...
Anticipating Slow, Range Trade
You don't get markets much more range bound than this! The low 1170 area has been strong resistance for stocks (ES futures, above), and...
Top Financial Blogs From 24/7 Wall St.
Well, 24/7 Wall St. is out with an updated list of top 25 financial blogs , and it's very worth a review. It's a great way to disco...
Defining Effective Price Targets With the Previous Day's Data
In my recent post , I emphasized that every trade idea that includes risk and reward necessarily makes assumptions about both market directi...
Every Trade Idea Includes Hidden Volatility Assumptions
This will begin a series of short posts on price targets, why they're helpful, and how I calculate them. While many traders pay close at...
Morning Briefing for March 31st: Shifting Lower
9:13 AM CT - I added the top chart to show how we made fresh morning lows before 9 AM CT, but those lows were accompanied by relatively mode...
In Appreciation: A Free Bonus for TraderFeed Readers
I want to thank readers for their continued support of the blog. This month has seen another record number of visitors (above) and page vie...
A Look at Sentiment and Stock Market Strength
As we can see, the CBOE equity put/call ratio has averaged about .60 since the fourth quarter of 2009. We've tended to spike higher tha...
Thoughts on Networking and Success
I want to thank the many traders who have responded to the post regarding forming virtual trading groups . My hope is that those who commen...
For Traders Looking to Form and Join Virtual Trading Groups
In his comment to my recent post , reader Bruce expresses a desire to connect with other traders to form a mutual coaching group. This very...
Succeeding as Your Own Trading Coach: Guiding the Learning Process
"I never teach my pupils," Albert Einstein once remarked. "I only attempt to provide the conditions in which they can learn....
Preparing for False Breakout Moves in the Stock Market
Note how often in recent market action we've seen prices move above or below a recent high or low, only to snap back into the prior trad...
Morning Briefing for March 30th: Continuing the Range Trade
10:35 AM CT - Note the downside break that occurred from the range that had prevailed going into today's open. The inability to hold th...
Municipal Debt and State Budget Woes: Accident Waiting to Happen?
Municipal bonds (TFI; above) have fallen from recent highs and have not exceeded their 2009 peak thus far in 2010. Nonetheless, they remain...
Constructing Experience and Other Good Monday Reads
* The importance of constructing--and reconstructing--our mental maps ; * The experience of discrepancy is what rewires our thinking and ...
Goal-Setting, Discipline, and the Emotions of Traders
An important post from last year linked goal setting in trading with emotional well-being--and especially with sound trading discipline. Di...
The Relevance of VWAP in a Range Market
The volume-weighted average price (VWAP; red line above) is an excellent reference point in range bound markets. In a good range trade, we...
Morning Briefing for March 29th: Pulling Back
9:13 AM CT - I added the top chart to show how we're trading in a range thus far today, with volume building between 1167 and 1169 and t...
A Longer-Term Look at Risk Assets: Is Global Growth Intact?
I thought it might be enlightening to take a longer-term look at three markets. All the above are weekly charts. We can see that the China ...
The Value of Keeping Score Religiously
What does the distribution of your trading returns reveal about your trading? Are you aware of the distribution of your returns? I recently...
Keys to Daytrading Success and Why So Few Traders Get There
Thanks to several alert readers for sending me this insightful New York Times article on daytrading and the challenge of daytraders. A whi...
Mental Toughness, Psychological Resilience, and Trading
* Resilience and courage in trading; * What we can learn from NCAA upsets ; * Nice outline of what goes into mental toughness ; * Menta...
A Fresh Look at Demand/Supply Momentum
An older book that I'm rereading--and finding useful--is Constance Brown's text on Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional ....
Behavioral Finance and Other Good Reading to Start the Week
* Ten defining features of successful traders; * The P/L ups and downs of trading successfully; * Thanks to a sharp reader for this lin...
Midday Briefing for March 26th: In the Range
We've moved back into the day's trading range, and indeed are within a multiday trading range. Chartists will be tempted to see a h...
Divergences in New Highs and Lows
Note the deterioration in new 20-day highs minus lows in the last two weeks (pink line above), even as the S&P 500 Index (blue line) has...
Friday Thoughts and Perspectives
* Two killer words in the trader lexicon: "should have"; * The power of embracing frustration and turning it into opportunity...
NYSE TICK as a Gauge of Intraday Swings
Here we see a four-hour moving average of NYSE TICK (pink line) plotted against SPY (blue line) from March 17th through today's session....
Underperforming Commodities and Commodity Stocks
While the U.S. dollar is on an upward path and Treasury rates have been moving higher , commodities (DBC; top chart) and commodity-related s...
Markets Responding to Economic Strength
Just a quick update to yesterday's post, observing important market dynamics, as the dollar (top chart) and 10-year Treasury rates (bott...
NYXE TICK: Catching Shifts in Intraday Sentiment
Here's a nice illustration of how diminished selling pressure (NYSE TICK, bottom chart) and positive sentiment (Cumulative TICK staying ...
Morning Briefing for March 25th: Watching a Breakout
9:58 AM CT - With strength in financial shares, but many sectors trading below their opening prices, we're getting a mixed, range perfor...
Behavioral Finance and Other Interesting Research
* What research tells us about elite performance; * How common actually is elite trading success ? * Thanks to a savvy portfolio manager...
A Look at the U.S. Dollar and Treasury Rates
Note today's upside break in the U.S. dollar (UUP; top chart) and in 10-year Treasury rates ($TNX; bottom chart). During the market dec...
Finding Opportunity in Choppy Markets
My experience for much of the past year is that intraday traders, both independent and at proprietary trading firms, have been struggling to...
Midday Briefing for March 24th: Pulling Back
As you can see, we've been oscillating around the day session's opening price of 1165 in the ES futures, with about 882 more declini...
The Challenge of Mean Reversion Reversals in the Stock Market
Note how often price in the ES futures has popped to a new high or low, only to return to the prior trading range (blue arrows above). I exp...
Morning Briefing for March 24th: Facing Pressure
9:28 AM CT - I've added the top chart to show how we're trading both within the overnight trading range and within the range defined...
The Most Common Problem I See Among Active Traders
The recent post on listening to market communications highlights one of the most common problems I see among active traders, particularly t...
Learning to Listen to Market Communications
My recent post on gaining access to our inner expertise stressed that what we know is, in part, a function of our state of consciousness. I...
Midday Briefing for March 23rd: Tracking a Range Market
We've remained in a range all day long, but if we can hold the VWAP level on selling, we should be able to mount a decent test of the da...
Gaining Access to Inner Expertise
As I emphasized in this important post , traders know more than they know they know. This is the result of internalizing patterns in market...
Thinking Like the Computers
One thing I've learned from observing the actual trading of prop traders--those who are trading actively in and out of the market throug...
Morning Briefing for March 23rd: Forming a Range
9:56 AM CT - I've added the top chart to show the continued range trade in the ES futures. We have moved below the overnight range and ...
Useful Cheat Sheet From Barchart.com
This is an unsolicited shout-out to one of my favorite sites, Barchart.com . The site is my source for the 20-day new high/new low data tha...
Monday Evening News and Views
* Five core principles of trading psychology; * Thanks to some alert readers for this article on testosterone and risk ; * Underemployme...
